Conditional expected value

Projection interpretation of conditional expected value

Let 𝑋,𝑌 :𝜉 be real random variables. For any function : , #m/thm/prob

𝔼[(𝑌𝔼[𝑌𝑋])(𝑋)]=0

implying Corr[𝑌 𝔼[𝑌 𝑋],(𝑋)] =0, i.e. 𝑌 𝔼[𝑌 𝑋] is completely uncorrelated with any function of 𝑋. This motivates the following interpretation of conditional expectation:

Projection interpretation of conditional expected value

𝔼[𝑌 𝑋] contains the entire component of 𝑌 which is a function of 𝑋 (i.e. determined by 𝑋) and the residual component 𝑌 𝔼[𝑌 𝑋] is completely uncorrelated with any function of 𝑋.


#state/develop | #lang/en | #SemBr